{"id":5469,"date":"2014-03-05T15:19:24","date_gmt":"2014-03-05T06:19:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/katukawa.com\/?p=5469"},"modified":"2014-03-05T15:35:09","modified_gmt":"2014-03-05T06:35:09","slug":"%e9%95%b7%e6%9c%9f%e7%9a%84%e3%81%aa%e3%83%88%e3%83%ac%e3%83%b3%e3%83%89%e3%81%a8%e7%9f%ad%e6%9c%9f%e7%9a%84%e3%81%aa%e3%82%86%e3%82%89%e3%81%8e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/katukawa.com\/?p=5469","title":{"rendered":"\u9577\u671f\u7684\u306a\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u3068\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u306a\u3086\u3089\u304e"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4eca\u5e74\u306f\u3001\u5168\u56fd\u7684\u306b\u5927\u96ea\u306b\u898b\u821e\u308f\u308c\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u300c\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u306f\u3069\u3046\u306a\u3063\u305f\u306e\uff1f\u300d\u3068\u601d\u3063\u305f\u4eba\u3082\u591a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u306f\u7121\u3044\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\u3002\u5927\u96ea\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u3067\u3001\u4eca\u5e74\u306e\u51ac\u306f\u5bd2\u304b\u3063\u305f\u5370\u8c61\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u307f\u308b\u3068\u305d\u3046\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002\u4eca\u5e74<a href=\"http:\/\/climate.jp\/2014\/03\/record-breaking-january\/\">\uff11\u6708\u306e\u5730\u7403\u5168\u4f53\u306e\u6c17\u6e29\u306f\u904e\u53bb\uff14\u756a\u76ee\u306e\u6696\u304b\u3055<\/a>\u3060\u3063\u305f\u305d\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><cite>\u4e00\u6708\u306e\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u6c17\u6e29\u306f1880\u5e74\u306e\u8a18\u9332\u958b\u59cb\u304b\u3089\u6570\u3048\u3066\u4e00\u6708\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u904e\u53bb4\u756a\u76ee\u306b\u6696\u304b\u304f\u300120\u4e16\u7d00\u5e73\u5747\u6c17\u6e29\u3088\u308a\u3082\u6696\u304b\u3044\u6c17\u6e29\u306f\u3053\u308c\u3067\u9023\u7d9a347\u56de\u3001\u3042\u3068\u3072\u3068\u6708\u306729\u5e74\u9023\u7d9a\u3068\u3044\u3046\u60c5\u5831\u304c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ncdc.noaa.gov\/sotc\/global\/2014\/1\">NOAA\u304b\u3089\u767a\u8868\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059<\/a>\u3002<\/cite><\/p>\n<p>\u30ea\u30f3\u30af\u5148\u306eNOAA(\u7c73\u56fd\u6d77\u6d0b\u5927\u6c17\u5e81)\u306e\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8\u306b\u98db\u3093\u3067\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u6bce\u5e74\uff11\u6708\u306e\u8868\u9762\u6e29\u5ea6\uff08\u9678\u4e0a\u30fb\u6d77\u6d0b\uff09\u306e\u63a8\u79fb\u3092\u793a\u3059\u56f3\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/katukawa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/201401.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-5470\" alt=\"201401\" src=\"https:\/\/katukawa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/201401-300x193.gif\" width=\"300\" height=\"193\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nhttp:\/\/www.ncdc.noaa.gov\/sotc\/service\/global\/glob\/201401.gif<\/p>\n<p>\u6d77\u6d0b\u3082\u3001\u9678\u4e0a\u3082\u540c\u69d8\u306b\u3001\u5e73\u5747\u6e29\u5ea6\u304c\u4e0a\u6607\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u306f\u4e00\u76ee\u77ad\u7136\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u56f3\u3067\u306f\u3001\uff12\uff10\u4e16\u7d00\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u6e29\u5ea6\u304c\u30bc\u30ed\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u57fa\u6e96\u5316\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u5e73\u5747\u3088\u308a\u3082\u5bd2\u304b\u3063\u305f\u5e74\uff08\u9752\uff09\u306f\uff12\uff10\u4e16\u7d00\u524d\u534a\u306b\u504f\u3063\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\uff11\uff19\uff18\uff10\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u964d\u306f\u307b\u307c\u771f\u3063\u8d64\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u9577\u671f\u7684\u306a\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304b\u3089\u306f\u3001\u660e\u77ad\u306a\u5897\u52a0\u50be\u5411\u3092\u898b\u3066\u53d6\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u4e0a\u6607\u7387\u306f\uff11\uff10\uff10\u5e74\u3067\uff11\u2103\u7a0b\u5ea6\u306e\u7de9\u3084\u304b\u306a\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002\u6bce\u5e74\u306e\u5909\u52d5\u3068\u6bd4\u3079\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5fae\u3005\u305f\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6211\u3005\u304c\u4f53\u611f\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306f\u96e3\u3057\u3044\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002\u6642\u7cfb\u5217\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\uff11\uff10\u5e74\u3050\u3089\u3044\u5207\u308a\u53d6\u3063\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u6bce\u5e74\u306e\u5909\u52d5\u306b\u96a0\u308c\u3066\u3001\u9577\u671f\u7684\u306a\u5897\u52a0\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u306f\u898b\u3048\u306a\u304f\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30b7\u30e9\u30b9\u30a6\u30ca\u30ae\u306e\u6f01\u7372\u91cf\u3082\u540c\u3058\u3088\u3046\u306a\u69cb\u56f3\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30b7\u30e9\u30b9\u30a6\u30ca\u30ae\u306e\u6f01\u7372\u306f\u3001\u9577\u671f\u7684\u306b\u306f\u660e\u77ad\u306a\u6e1b\u5c11\u50be\u5411\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u6570\u5e74\u3060\u3051\u53d6\u308a\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3068\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u306a\u63fa\u3089\u304e\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u304c\u5927\u304d\u304f\u3066\u3001\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u30e0\u306b\u898b\u3048\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30b7\u30e9\u30b9\u30a6\u30ca\u30ae\u306e\u6f01\u7372\u91cf\u306f\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u306b\u3069\u306e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u306e\u30b7\u30e9\u30b9\u30a6\u30ca\u30ae\u304c\u6d41\u308c\u3066\u304f\u308b\u304b\u306b\u4f9d\u5b58\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30b7\u30e9\u30b9\u30a6\u30ca\u30ae\u6765\u904a\u91cf\u306f\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u5316\u3057\u3066\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u65e5\u672c\u3078\u306e\u30b7\u30e9\u30b9\u30a6\u30ca\u30ae\u6765\u904a\u91cf<br \/>\n\uff1d \u7523\u5375\u91cf \u00d7 \u5375\u306e\u751f\u304d\u6b8b\u308a\u7387 \u00d7 \u65e5\u672c\u306b\u6d41\u308c\u3064\u304f\u78ba\u7387<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u7523\u5375\u91cf\u306f\u89aa\u9b5a\u306e\u8cc7\u6e90\u91cf\u306b\u4f9d\u5b58\u3057\u3001\u9577\u671f\u7684\u306a\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u3092\u6301\u3063\u3066\u7de9\u3084\u304b\u306b\u63a8\u79fb\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u3001\u5375\u306e\u751f\u304d\u6b8b\u308a\u7387 \u3068\u65e5\u672c\u306b\u6d41\u308c\u3064\u304f\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u3001\u6d77\u6d41\u306e\u914d\u7f6e\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u6bce\u5e74\u5927\u304d\u304f\u5909\u52d5\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u6f01\u7372\u306e\u52d5\u5411\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8ad6\u3058\u308b\u306b\u306f\u3001\u300c\u7523\u5375\u89aa\u9b5a\u306e\u6e1b\u5c11\u306b\u3088\u308b\u9577\u671f\u7684\u306a\u6e1b\u5c11\u50be\u5411\u300d\u3068\u300c\u6d77\u6d41\u306e\u5909\u5316\u306b\u3088\u308b\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u306a\u63fa\u3089\u304e\u300d\u306e\u4e21\u8005\u3092\u5206\u3051\u3066\u8003\u3048\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30b7\u30e9\u30b9\u30a6\u30ca\u30ae\u306e\u6f01\u7372\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304b\u3089\u3001\u9577\u671f\u7684\u306a\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u3092\u629c\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u5358\u56de\u5e30\u3092\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3059\u3002R\u306e\u30bd\u30fc\u30b9\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u901a\u308a\u3002\u6f01\u7372\u91cf\u306f\u5bfe\u6570\u3092\u3068\u3063\u3066\u304b\u3089\u7d71\u8a08\u51e6\u7406\u3092\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>#\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf<br \/>\ncatch&lt;-c(73,48,42,57,47,45,29,31,27,20,20,25,24,22,20,23,24,18,13,20,14,12,11,27,16,14,19,17,15,9,21,9,9,13,6,9.5,9,5.2)<br \/>\nyear&lt;-1976:2013<\/p>\n<p>#\u5358\u56de\u5e30<br \/>\nplot(year,log(catch))<br \/>\nmodel&lt;-lm(log(catch)~year)<br \/>\nnew&lt;-data.frame(x=seq(min(year),max(year),1))<br \/>\nB&lt;-predict(model,new,se.fit=T,interval=&#8221;prediction&#8221;) #\u63a8\u5b9a\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e95%\u63a8\u5b9a\u533a\u9593<br \/>\nlines(as.matrix(new),A$fit[,1])<br \/>\nlines(as.matrix(new),B$fit[,2],col=&#8221;blue&#8221;)<br \/>\nlines(as.matrix(new),B$fit[,3],col=&#8221;blue&#8221;)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u5358\u56de\u5e30\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u306f\u6709\u610f\u3067\u3042\u308a\uff08R2\u304c0.78\u3001p\u5024\u304c9.85e-14\uff09\u3001\u6bce\u5e74\uff15\uff05\u7a0b\u5ea6\u306e\u6e1b\u5c11\u50be\u5411\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5358\u56de\u5e30\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u56f3\u793a\u3057\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3053\u3093\u306a\u611f\u3058\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u767d\u4e38\u304c\u5b9f\u6e2c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3001\u9ed2\u3044\u5b9f\u7dda\u304c\u56de\u5e30\u76f4\u7dda\u3001\u9752\u3044\u7dda\u304c95%\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u533a\u9593\uff08\uff12\uff10\u5e74\u306e\u3046\u3061\uff11\uff19\u5e74\u306f\u9752\u306e\u7dda\u306e\u4e2d\u306b\u53ce\u307e\u308b\uff09\u3067\u3059\u3002\uff12\uff10\uff11\uff14\u5e74\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u306f\uff19\uff15\uff05\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u533a\u9593\u5468\u8fba\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/katukawa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\u30ad\u30e3\u30d7\u30c1\u30e37.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5474\" alt=\"\u30ad\u30e3\u30d7\u30c1\u30e3\" src=\"https:\/\/katukawa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\u30ad\u30e3\u30d7\u30c1\u30e37.png\" width=\"552\" height=\"475\" srcset=\"https:\/\/katukawa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\u30ad\u30e3\u30d7\u30c1\u30e37.png 552w, https:\/\/katukawa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\u30ad\u30e3\u30d7\u30c1\u30e37-300x258.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 552px) 100vw, 552px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u304b\u3089\u8a00\u3048\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u6709\u610f\u306a\u6e1b\u5c11\u50be\u5411\u304c\u307f\u3089\u308c\u305f<\/li>\n<li>\u6e1b\u5c11\u7387\u306f\u6bce\u5e74\uff15\uff05\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3060\u3063\u305f<\/li>\n<li>\uff12\uff10\uff11\uff14\u5e74\u306f\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u5e74\u3060\u304c\u3001\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u63fa\u3089\u304e\u306e\u7bc4\u56f2\u5185\u3067\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>2014\u5e74\u7a0b\u5ea6\u306e\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u5e74\u306f\u904e\u53bb\u306b\u3082\u4f55\u56de\u304b\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3051\u308c\u3069\u3082\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5f8c\u3082\u8cc7\u6e90\u306e\u6e1b\u5c11\u50be\u5411\u306f\u7d9a\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u4eca\u56de\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3082\u3001\u8cc7\u6e90\u304c\u56de\u5fa9\u3059\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306a\u8981\u56e0\u306f\u7279\u306b\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u300c\u6d77\u6d41\u306e\u72b6\u614b\u304c\u826f\u304f\u3066\u3001\u305f\u307e\u305f\u307e\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u5e74\u3060\u3063\u305f\u300d\u3068\u8003\u3048\u308b\u306e\u304c\u59a5\u5f53\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002\u9577\u671f\u7684\u306a\u6e1b\u5c11\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u3092\u898b\u76f4\u3059\u3088\u3046\u306a\u72b6\u6cc1\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8cc7\u6e90\u7684\u306b\u53b3\u3057\u3044\u72b6\u6cc1\u3067\u3001\u904b\u826f\u304f\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u5e74\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3053\u306e\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u5e74\u306e\u30b7\u30e9\u30b9\u30a6\u30ca\u30ae\u3092\u3001\u300c\u8c4a\u6f01\u3060\uff01\uff01\u5b89\u304f\u306a\u308b\uff01\uff01\u300d\u3068\u7372\u308c\u308b\u3060\u3051\u7372\u308b\u3079\u304d\u306a\u306e\u304b\u3002\u305d\u308c\u3068\u3082\u3001\u672a\u6765\u306e\u7a2e\u7c7e\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u305b\u3081\u3066\u4f8b\u5e74\u3088\u308a\u3082\u5897\u3048\u305f\u5206\u3050\u3089\u3044\u306f\u672a\u6765\u306b\u6b8b\u3059\u3079\u304d\u306a\u306e\u304b\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u3001\u5f8c\u8005\u3067\u3042\u3063\u3066\u6b32\u3057\u3044\u3068\u5207\u306b\u601d\u3046\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4eca\u5e74\u306f\u3001\u5168\u56fd\u7684\u306b\u5927\u96ea\u306b\u898b\u821e\u308f\u308c\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u300c\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u306f\u3069\u3046\u306a\u3063\u305f\u306e\uff1f\u300d\u3068\u601d\u3063\u305f\u4eba\u3082 &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/katukawa.com\/?p=5469\">\u7d9a\u304d\u3092\u8aad\u3080 <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[98],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5469","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-98"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u9577\u671f\u7684\u306a\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u3068\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u306a\u3086\u3089\u304e - \u52dd\u5ddd\u4fca\u96c4\u516c\u5f0f\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/katukawa.com\/?p=5469\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ja_JP\" \/>\n<meta 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